OO 4053 · AUS → MFE

departs 2:55 PM CT · arrives 4:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±8 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MFE?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 733 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MFE

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MFE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling733 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.23 in

MFE (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4053 · AUS → MFE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFE?