Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4104
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 4104 · SEA → BZN
departs 11:40 AM PT · arrives 2:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 9/30 13%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BZN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BZN?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BZN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.