Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4131
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
OO 4131 · SEA → SMF
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 10:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.