OO 4163 · AUS → BNA

departs 6:57 PM CT · arrives 9:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±5 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling767 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precip2.00 in

BNA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4163 · AUS → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?