Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4231
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
OO 4231 · CIU → DTW
departs 4:13 PM ET · arrives 5:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave CIU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
4pm departures from CIU are usually not late
Weather at each end
CIU (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.