OO 4631 · ASE → ORD

departs 8:24 AM MT · arrives 12:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ASE

Weather at each end

ASE (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.96 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4631 · ASE → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?