Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4633
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 4633 · ATW → ORD
departs 5:29 PM CT · arrives 6:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
73%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
73%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
39%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 73% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Leave ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
ATW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.02 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.