OO 4657 · ASE → SFO

departs 9:59 AM MT · arrives 11:48 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ASE (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4657 · ASE → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?