Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4833
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 4833 · LWB → ORD
departs 4:26 PM ET · arrives 5:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 9/30 58%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±8 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LWB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LWB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.1 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.