OO 4885 · ORD → DTW

departs 6:55 PM CT · arrives 9:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

80% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
19%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
38%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.01 in

DTW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4885 · ORD → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?