OO 4911 · DFW → ASE

departs 6:48 PM CT · arrives 7:57 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±2 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ASE?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ASE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

ASE (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4911 · DFW → ASE

Odds over time

How late will it get to ASE?