OO 4916 · DFW → ASE

departs 8:35 AM CT · arrives 9:45 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts −17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ASE?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
28%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

ASE (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4916 · DFW → ASE

Odds over time

How late will it get to ASE?