OO 4933 · ORD → DSM

departs 12:28 PM CT · arrives 1:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into DSM at that hour are usually not late

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.99 in

DSM (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4933 · ORD → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?