OO 4936 · FWA → ORD

departs 10:47 AM ET · arrives 10:54 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ FWA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

FWA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.16 in

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.86 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4936 · FWA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?