OO 4940 · ORD → SDF

departs 3:01 PM CT · arrives 5:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.96 in

SDF (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4940 · ORD → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?