OO 4998 · LAX → IAH

departs 2:16 PM PT · arrives 7:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4998 · LAX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?