OO 5012 · ORD → LEX

departs 8:09 AM CT · arrives 10:41 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LEX?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.74 in

LEX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5012 · ORD → LEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LEX?