Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5100
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 5100 · ORD → CMX
departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 6:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 9/30 64%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 28%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMX more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at CMX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to CMX?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
4pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↓
CMX usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
CMX (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.