OO 5229 · DEN → FSD

departs 3:36 PM MT · arrives 6:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FSD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5229 · DEN → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?