OO 5230 · IAH → ABQ

departs 4:34 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ABQ?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

ABQ (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5230 · IAH → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?