OO 5269 · IAH → MFE

departs 12:10 PM CT · arrives 1:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MFE?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MFE that day

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ MFE usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.17 in

MFE (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5269 · IAH → MFE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFE?