Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5271
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 5271 · SFO → FAT
departs 8:55 PM PT · arrives 10:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.