OO 5359 · ORD → FSD

departs 4:06 PM CT · arrives 5:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↓ FSD usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.86 in

FSD (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5359 · ORD → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?