Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
OO 5417 · MSO → SFO
departs 4:19 PM MT · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO
Weather at each end
MSO (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.