OO 5435 · SFO → BFL

departs 2:08 PM PT · arrives 3:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at BFL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BFL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BFL

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

BFL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5435 · SFO → BFL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BFL?