OO 5461 · ORD → MLI

departs 5:50 PM CT · arrives 6:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MLI?

On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
35%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MLI that day

↓ MLI usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.88 in

MLI (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.80 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5461 · ORD → MLI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MLI?