OO 5466 · FWA → ORD

departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 5:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±1 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FWA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ FWA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FWA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.75 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5466 · FWA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?