Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 5470 · XNA → ORD
departs 11:14 AM CT · arrives 1:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 21%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
1.0 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↓
11am departures from XNA are usually not late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.20 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.