OO 5493 · ORD → MLI

departs 10:34 AM CT · arrives 11:36 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MLI?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MLI that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↓ MLI usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into MLI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.01 in

MLI (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.98 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5493 · ORD → MLI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MLI?