OO 5496 · ORD → SBN

departs 2:00 PM CT · arrives 4:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SBN that day

↓ SBN usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

SBN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5496 · ORD → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?