OO 5530 · ORD → MSN

departs 3:58 PM CT · arrives 4:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.96 in

MSN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5530 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?