OO 5563 · ORD → TVC

departs 10:53 AM CT · arrives 1:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TVC?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at TVC that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.92 in

TVC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5563 · ORD → TVC

Odds over time

How late will it get to TVC?