OO 5647 · FAT → SFO

departs 12:04 PM PT · arrives 1:11 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5647 · FAT → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?