OO 5831 · SBA → SFO

departs 9:34 AM PT · arrives 10:57 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5831 · SBA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?