OO 5893 · LAX → SBA

departs 12:49 PM PT · arrives 1:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5893 · LAX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?