OO 5964 · COS → ORD

departs 8:04 AM MT · arrives 11:40 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Gusts to 36 kt forecast at COS that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from COS are usually not late

Weather at each end

COS (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.20 in

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5964 · COS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?