OO 5994 · SBA → LAX

departs 2:31 PM PT · arrives 3:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from SBA are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5994 · SBA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?