OO 6215 · MCI → ORD

departs 12:21 PM CT · arrives 1:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.63 in

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6215 · MCI → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?