OO 6298 · ORD → TVC

departs 8:04 AM CT · arrives 10:18 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TVC?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at TVC that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into TVC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.96 in

TVC (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6298 · ORD → TVC

Odds over time

How late will it get to TVC?