OO 6486 · DFW → AEX

departs 3:29 PM CT · arrives 4:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AEX?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into AEX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip2.36 in

AEX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6486 · DFW → AEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to AEX?