Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
OO 6498 · ORD → LEX
departs 10:00 PM CT · arrives 12:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 78%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±6 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.96 in
LEX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.