Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1045 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 1045 · XNA → DEN

departs 8:50 AM CT · arrives 10:01 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at XNA that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ 8am departures from XNA are usually not late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.20 in

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1045 · XNA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?