UA 1102 · EWR → SAN

departs 7:25 PM ET · arrives 10:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 7pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1102 · EWR → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?