UA 1172 · ORD → IAH

departs 5:35 AM CT · arrives 8:12 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from ORD are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1172 · ORD → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?