Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1204 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 1204 · DEN → ATW

departs 5:40 PM MT · arrives 9:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATW?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1204 · DEN → ATW

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATW?