UA 1226 · IAH → BOS

departs 12:25 PM CT · arrives 5:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +29 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

BOS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1226 · IAH → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?