UA 1236 · ORD → EWR

departs 3:02 PM CT · arrives 6:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1236 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?