UA 1251 · ORF → ORD

departs 4:59 PM ET · arrives 6:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±6 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1251 · ORF → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?