UA 1261 · SAT → EWR

departs 1:35 PM CT · arrives 6:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling540 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.40 in

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1261 · SAT → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?