UA 1273 · ORD → EWR

departs 7:30 AM CT · arrives 10:41 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

EWR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1273 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?